When Does Structural Balance Hold? A Conditional Test of Triadic Closure in Adolescent Signed Directed Networks

ABSTRACT: Structural balance theory predicts that when two ties link three actors through a shared intermediary, the closing tie should it form will obey the sign-product rule. Yet how often does this prediction actually hold, and under what conditions?

This project tests it empirically by estimating the probability of balance, conditional on closure, separately for each sign configuration of the open two-path. The analysis draws on data from the TeensLab project in Spain and a comparable study in El Salvador.

Preliminary findings point to a conditional picture of balance: its strength varies systematically with the type of tie and the relational context. The presentation aims to discuss both the empirical strategy and the scope and interpretation of the findings.

Link al seminario: https://loyola.webex.com/meet/rede3c